May 9, 2018

A Model for Politics and History

For a few weeks now I've been mulling over a pretty complex problem.

I'd like to be able to simulate years and years of history, the rise and fall of civilizations, and the growth and decline of settlements.

Not only does this require a pretty indepth study of how individual settlements are formed, there is also much work that would have to be done to see how those settlements interacted, conjoined, fought, etc.

Assuming that I can figure out where the people live, I plan to build a series of simple Markov decision trees and cellular automaton to stochastically figure out what happens next. This is a good substitute for emergent order. In fact, I already have the structure for a cellular automaton, since my map consists of individual hex objects, each with its own properties.

Has it been done already?

Sort of. I suppose I need to step back and design this from the ground up. What features do I want? What sorts of inputs are important to the model? Most importantly, how does the model interface with the map I'm building (the timescales I need are far shorter than anything that would affect the geography significantly, barring a worldwide cataclysm)?

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